Category: statistic

How Tall Would a Stack of New Testament Manuscripts Be?

On By Daniel B. WallaceIn Early Christianity, History, New Testament Studies, statistic, Textual Criticsim

If you could stack up all handwritten manuscripts of the New Testament—Greek, Syriac, Latin, Coptic, all languages—how tall would the stack be? 

I was recently challenged on my numbers in a Facebook discussion in the group “New Testament Textual Criticism.”

I have said in many lectures that it would be the equivalent of c. 4 & 1/2 Empire State Buildings stacked on top of each other. How did I come up with that number? 

First, I needed to figure out the total number of pages of all our Greek NT manuscripts. Ancillary to that, but helpful for estimating versional witnesses, is determining the average number of pages in the manuscripts. For Greek NT MSS, my wife did the addition. When I was on sabbatical in Germany in 2002–03, I spent a few months in Tübingen (after several months in Münster). Pati added up all the leaf counts of Greek NT MSS listed in the 1994 Kurzgefaßte Liste. Then, she doubled it to get the page count. The average-sized MS was well over 400 pages long. Total number was something like 2.5 million pages. Of course, now we have the online K-Liste, and quite a few more MSS on the list, but the ’94 was the latest available at the time. Keep in mind that the folio count of those MSS that had been mislabeled were not listed in the 1994 K-Liste, although the official number of MSS was (which was higher than the actual number by a couple hundred or so). Today, the official number is, at last count, 5999. The actual number, I believe, is closer to 5800.[1] Many other researchers suggest the actual number to be about 5500, but I have reason to believe it’s higher than this. Regardless, all our numbers are approximations, but we do need a ballpark figure to give us some sort of a benchmark. 

Next, I needed to estimate the thickness of the average MS. This was trickier to do and could only be an estimate since the depth of MSS is almost never measured in any metadata write-ups. But CSNTM has been measuring depth on all MSS since 2015. I had previously guesstimated 3.5” thickness per average MS. After sampling twenty MSS at the National Library of Greece, whose average number of leaves came to 239, the depth came out to 2.9″ (that’s a shortfall of 6/10th of an inch from my original guess). 

Taking the average of 2.9″ per MS above as depth (including covers, which I estimated at c. 1/2″; these I have not measured but after looking at hundreds of MSS, this number seemed to be on the conservative side), times 5800 MSS = 1402 feet, almost as high as the Empire State Building (1454′). 

Third, I added the number of versional witnesses. I have estimated somewhere between 15,000 and 20,000 versional witnesses, with the Latin making up for the bulk of these. In our many expeditions, I have seen numerous Coptic MSS, far more than I had thought were extant. And I have assumed c. 10,000 Latin MSS. If this number is as low as 8,000, that is offset by the more sumptuous medieval Latin MSS than their Greek counterparts. The depth, thus, would be larger than 2.9″, but I’m assuming 10,000 (perhaps too high) at 2.9″ depth (probably too low). Assuming that other versional witnesses are similar in size (though, since none of them is as early as the earliest Greek NTs, and thus not as fragmentary, they will tend to be fuller, with quite a number of them being very large), we come up with the following numbers:

20,800 total number of MSS (5800 Greek + 15,000 versions): = 5027 feet

25,800 total number of MSS (5800 Greek + 20,000 versions): = 6235 feet

This number is a bit smaller than I had estimated previously. I have adjusted my presentation in light of the new polling of the average MS depth. Incidentally, four stacked Empire State Buildings would be 5816 feet tall (and yes, I’m counting the antennae on top).

Bibliographical comparison. I tried to compare apples with apples: the NT in all handwritten copies compared to classical Greek works of all handwritten copies in any language. For the latter, I did not do any scientific count but gave a broad estimate based on selective data of a number of authors. 15 MSS seemed to be a generous estimate. That stack came to 3.625 feet tall, but I rounded it up to 4 feet.

Significance—this IS helpful and not misleading when properly used. Some of the comments on the Facebook discussion appear to have made many false assumptions—e.g., that our NT MSS are written on a scroll (or roll), that they are single-leaf MSS, or that I was counting Greek only. “When properly used”: In my lectures on this topic, I don’t use these figures in isolation. I offer four questions that need to be answered. The first question is pertinent to this discussion: How many variants are there? I use Peter Gurry’s estimate of 500,000 (Greek MSS only), but since he didn’t count nonsense readings and most spelling variants, when they are included the numbers are exponentially higher. In other words, I do not minimize the number of variants in the slightest. At this point in the lecture, many Christians tend to squirm in their seats; many others are rejoicing in their minds! Recovering the autographic wording appears to be hopeless. 

Then I put things into perspective. The context of the number of MSS was simply that, as Richard Bentley argued three hundred years ago, the more MSS, the more variants. I also compared the date of the earliest NT fragments with the average earliest copies of Greco-Roman writings. Even the earliest copies of (just about) any Greco-Roman literature come many centuries after the autographs were written. Although only about 1% of our Greek MSS are complete NTs, the average size is well over 400 pages. I assume the same for versions. 

Significance continued: Why specific numbers? I would argue strenuously that giving numbers in this context is quite helpful for most people. Some think abstractly and such numbers may seem meaningless. But I believe that many, if not most, think more concretely, especially in lay circles and on college campuses, when trying to get a handle on textual criticism. Grasping the topic in a one hour presentation is challenging enough without seeing concrete numbers! As an apt analogy, consider the Wong-Baker FACES® Pain Rating Scale. Created in 1983 to help children identify the intensity of pain on various parts of their body, this 1–10/happy-face-to-sad-face model soon mushroomed into an international standard for doctors across the globe—for adults as well as children. So it is with giving numbers on MSS. The analogy breaks down, however, because the pain index is completely relative. Logically, if the pain index is considered quite helpful for medical practitioners and their patients, in spite of its relativity, how much more so would the number of NT MSS be for those interested in textual matters? However, it would be misleading to give only the official number because of numerous caveats (see Jacob Peterson’s chapter, “Math Myths: How Many Manuscripts We have and Why More Isn’t Always Better,” in Myths & Mistakes). So, I give an estimate that is well within the ballpark of actual. And I show, century by century through the first millennium, how many MSS we have. I have tried to be very circumspect when dealing with the data, though of course in a popular lecture I dare not show my homework for fear of losing my audience! 

The numbers, caveats, context, and other features I use in this lecture have been tweaked over the years, and the Facebook discussion has helped me refine them further. I’m sure some folks will quibble over what I have presented (textual critics are the most hyper-critical scholars I know!), but implications of indolence coupled with suggestions of sham estimates, without giving me the benefit of the doubt, seeing what I have said, or even contacting me about this (only one friend did, and that’s how I learned about the discussion), are not particularly helpful. A little more charity will go a long way.

 

[1] Note too that a number of kinds of witnesses, in particular certain types of lectionaries, that Gregory had counted were abandoned when Aland took over the numbering system. Hundreds more of these unregistered MSS exist. (Dozens are at the National Library of Greece alone, but we did not shoot them.) So, in a sense, the numbers could go both ways—to a degree. If we counted all these, the total would swell to well over 6000 MSS. If we didn’t count Gregory’s at all, the numbers would drop by 225, or just under c. 5600.

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Not a statistic to me: V. Beecher Wallace, Jr. in Memoriam (1928–2020)

On By Daniel B. WallaceIn Beecher Wallace, Contemporary Issues, Coronavirus, COVID–19, History, resurrection, statistic, Theology

A Statistic

The month of March 2020 has been etched in my frontal lobe forever. The following dates give the bare facts and little else. But I offer this narrative because it may be helpful to healthcare workers who are battling COVID–19 in a fight to the death. Literally.

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Beecher and Nayda Wallace on their anniversary, March 29 (year unknown)

On March 3, my 91-year-old father, Vard Beecher Wallace, Jr. (“Beecher”), was in good health with a strong heart. He was still driving and lived alone. He was frail, but his doctor had recently told him that he had nothing that was life-threatening. (He’s had frequent accidents in the last few years, always by falling. He even broke his neck three years ago and had to wear a neck-brace at my mother’s funeral in 2017.) The next day, Dad was taken to Evergreen Medical Center in Kirkland, WA, for severe back pain. On March 9, he was moved to a nursing home for rehabilitation, until he could care for himself. The coronavirus was spreading rather quickly in Washington; family members were not even allowed to see him at the nursing home. On March 14, the home determined that two of its patients had caught the virus. This alarmed his family; the next day my sister Keri took Dad to his house and quarantined herself with him. He had to be brought out to her since she was not allowed in the nursing home. Three days later he developed a low-grade fever, but over the next 48 hours it didn’t get over 100 degrees, and it often returned to a normal 98.6. On March 18, he fell, hit his head, and his crown was bleeding. Keri called a local clinic, but they refused to see him because he had a low-grade fever. So, back to Evergreen. They stitched up the wound. Then, they tested him for the coronavirus. All of his children waited by their phones to hear the news, the minutes crawling by at a gruelingly slow pace.

Then the news arrived: Dad tested positive for the coronavirus. His condition continued to deteriorate over several days. He was dying by inches. I had the opportunity to talk with him a few times, but I could not visit (both because I was quarantined due to a recent flight to Greece and because the hospital was pretty much in lock-down).

Beecher was miserable, constantly taking off the oxygen mask, not eating, and in pain. He said the food tasted terrible. Dad had lost his sense of smell years ago, so although that is sometimes a symptom of the virus it was a precondition for him. He also had diabetes and had self-injected insulin daily for the last few years.

His breathing was becoming increasingly labored. He could only utter one word at a time and was very hard to understand. At one point his temperature spiked to 103, but for the most part it was normal or close to it. He was getting very confused, too. Beecher had been moved to three different rooms in Evergreen, but he thought it was three different hospitals. Then he asked if he was in California. He still recognized his children’s voices though. On the evening of March 27, the decision was made to let him decide whether to wear the mask; an IV of morphine was hooked up. He died at 5 o’clock the next morning, March 28. Beecher Wallace became a statistic, number 174 or 189 or somewhere in between, in the state of Washington.

My Father

But he is not a statistic to me. He passed into the presence of the Lord at 5 AM Saturday morning. He could see the love of his life again—Nayda Baird Wallace, my mother. Sunday, March 29, would have been their 73rd wedding anniversary. So, he made it just in time to celebrate with Mom! And he saw his Savior, face to face, for the first time. What a thrill that will be for all of us!

I was able to have two heart-to-heart conversations with Dad in the last few days of his life. Here’s the gist:

I asked him how his faith was.

Beecher: “Oh, it’s strong! If it weren’t, I’d have nothing to live for. Don’t you worry about me.”

Dan: “I wanted to tell you that hundreds of people are praying for you.” I wanted him to know that he’s not facing this alone. He was very appreciative. “Dad, you’ve been a wonderful father. You have taught me more about integrity, responsibility, and humility—all in the Lord—than anyone else ever has.” He appreciated that very much and talked about how incredible his kids are. (I have an older brother, Wally, and a younger sister, Keri.)

Beecher: “I just hope that I’m not around to see the sun come up tomorrow.”

Dan: “I know. Dad, I suspect I’ll never see you again in this life.” Then I lost control and started to cry.

He was stronger than me; he ministered to me on what we thought might be his last day in this life. He asked, “How’s Pati doing?” Then he told me how much he loved me and my family. And he added, “I’ll see you again in heaven.”

I’m so grateful to be Beecher Wallace’s son. And I look forward to seeing my earthly father once again.

Beecher is survived by two sons and their spouses (Vard Beecher Wallace III or “Wally” Wallace and his wife Carol, and Dan Wallace and his wife Pati), one daughter (Keri Marquand) and her ex-husband (Michael), eight grandchildren: Noah (and his wife Jean), Dustin (and his wife Erin), Benjamin, Jamie (and her husband David Condon), Michael Marquand Jr., Julia Marquand (and her husband Rolando Avila), Andrew (and his wife Danielle), and Zachary (and his wife Samantha); and seven great-grandchildren (Clariana, MacKenzie, Mara Jade, Sadie, Livya, Adlai, and Diego).

A virtual memorial service will be held on May 9. The video will be posted shortly thereafter.